TNF Report Week 9: Packers vs 49ers

Revenge is a dish best served by Davante Adams

Here’s a look at the fantasy implications of Thursday Night’s matchup between Green Bay and San Francisco:

Green Bay Packers

QB, Aaron Rodgers: Aaron Rodgers continued his dominant fantasy football season by throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns against a depleted San Francisco defense. It was good for 28.9 fantasy points, his third-highest total of the season. These are the types of numbers we can expect from Rodgers, and they show no signs of slowing down. Of course, throwing to Davante Adams helps, but even when the Packers have been missing key pieces of the offense (Adams, Aaron Jones and Allen Lazard have all missed time), Rodgers has been lights out. Expect more top-5 QB numbers next week against Jacksonville.

RB, Aaron Jones: Having missed the last two games with a calf injury, Aaron Jones was questionable all the way up until kickoff. Any fears of a pitch count were subdued on the opening drive, in which he touched the ball four times and produced 5.8 PPR points. Although the volume was there (20 touches for 79 total yards), the production resulted in his lowest fantasy output of the season. Jones should regain his RB1 form as he gets healthier, but the Packers’ propensity to throw at the goal line sure is getting frustrating.

RBs, Tyler Ervin, Dexter Williams, Jamaal Williams, AJ Dillon: With Aaron Jones banged up and Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon out due to COVID, it was no surprise that the Packers chose a pass-heavy approach. Aside from Jones, the only other healthy running backs were Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams. Neither of them are worth adding in any format, although Ervin somewhat impressed with four catches for 48 yards. Aaron Jones should be close to 100% next week, while Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon should also be back. The hierarchy of the Packers backfield is: 1) Aaron Jones 2) Jamaal Williams 3) AJ Dillon 4) Tyler Ervin 5) Dexter Williams

WR, Davante Adams: In Davante Adams’ last three games, he has 30 catches, 422 yards and six touchdowns. It’s one of the most dominant stretches in recent memory, and there’s a good chance it gets even more historic next week against Jacksonville. As long as Rodgers continues his MVP-caliber play, Adams should be locked in as the clear-cut fantasy WR1 for the rest of the season.

WR, Marquez Valdes-Scantling: After a two-touchdown performance on Thursday night, is MVS worth picking up from the waiver wire? Hell no. Valdes-Scantling explodes like this once, maybe twice a year, but it’s impossible to predict when it will be. He went six games between touchdowns, and he’s completely bombed in favorable matchups against Minnesota, Houston and Atlanta. Even with Jacksonville on the horizon, MVS isn’t worth rostering.

WR, Allen Lazard: Allen Lazard was having a very promising season before heading to IR for core muscle surgery. He’s missed the last five games, but if Lazard returns in week 10 against Jacksonville, he might be able to pick up right where he left off. Could be a sneaky DFS play if active, and a potential WR3 further down the season.

TEs, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, Jace Sternberger: Because the tight-end position is so dire, Robert Tonyan remains a potential starter. But it’s looking less and less likely that he recaptures that five-touchdown stretch from earlier in the season. He sees enough volume to be a low-end TE1 most weeks, but he’s starting to split more and more snaps with Jace Sternberger and Marcedes Lewis. The veteran Lewis was the vulture in this game, scoring from one-yard out in the second quarter (Sternberger scored a similar touchdown a couple weeks ago against the Texans). Meanwhile, Tonyan hasn’t seen the end zone since week four. If he doesn’t produce this week, it’s time to give up on him.

D/ST, Green Bay: Against a 49ers squad missing its entire starting offense, 6 fantasy points is pretty disappointing. Next up is a Jacksonville team starting sixth-round rookie Jake Luton. Despite the favorable matchup at home, the Green Bay defense might not be a viable streamer. They give up a LOT of garbage time stats.

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San Francisco 49ers

QB, Nick Mullens: Nick Mullens has been terrible for the 49ers, but he hasn’t negatively affected the fantasy value of the other skill position players. There is always at least one wide receiver and one running back on the San Fran offense that produces each game. The trouble is guessing which one.

RB, JaMycal Hasty: One of the biggest duds in a while, JaMycal Hasty barely saw the field and produced only 13 yards. He was being touted as a Top 15 play and the top waiver pick-up of the week. But unless we’re dealing with Raheem Mostert, you can never trust Kyle Shanahan’s backfield. Hasty simply isn’t a good running back — he’s not talented enough to step in and produce like Jerick McKinnon or Jeff Wilson, Jr.

RB, Jerick McKinnon: Don’t laugh, but Jerick McKinnon has secretly been San Francisco’s healthiest running back. He’s played in every game, and despite a three-week stretch of load management, McKinnon has scored double-digit PPR points six times this season. This all coming from the guy who tore his ACL and meniscus the last two years. McKinnon saved his night by scoring a touchdown with four-seconds left, but he’s the closest thing to a safe play in this confusing backfield.

RB, Raheem Mostert: Kyle Shanahan hinted that Mostert could return for the Week 10 matchup against the Saints. He hasn’t practiced since suffering a high ankle sprain three weeks ago against the Rams.

WR, Richie James: Usually, 9 catches for 184 yards and a touchdown will have everyone making their FAAB dollars rain like a strip club. But not for Richie James, bitch. Here’s why: the Niners were so depleted that someone had to catch all of Nick Mullens’ shitty passes. With Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne declared out at the last second due to COVID, the responsibility fell on James. He put up eye-popping numbers, but still remains the team’s sixth-best pass-catcher.

WR, Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, Deebo Samuel: Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne should be back for next week’s game against the Saints, and whether they’re receiving passes from Nick Mullens or CJ Beathard, they should be able to regain their expected roles. Until Deebo Samuel returns, Aiyuk remains the best bet to produce fantasy value.

TE, Ross Dwelley, Jordan Reed, George Kittle: The doctors told George Kittle eight weeks, he told them two. Unfortunately, that’s not how foot fractures work, but if there’s any tight end capable of quickly overcoming a serious injury, it’s definitely Kittle. In his absence, Ross Dwelley is most likely to pick up the slack. He and Mullens share a good rapport, and usually anything over 5 fantasy points can be considered passable for a TE. As of now, it doesn’t appear that Jordan Reed (1 catch, 3 yards) is a threat for targets.

D/ST, San Francisco: Scoring negative points the last two weeks, this depleted defense is likely to keep the streak alive with a matchup against the New Orleans Saints looming.